The next development kits Nintendo console are now in the hands of major partner studios, and the launch is planned for next year, sources told VGC.
According to several people familiar with Nintendo's plans for next-generation consoles, the company is expected to release its new hardware in the second half of 2024, to ensure it has sufficient stock from day one and avoid the kind of shortage observed with the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S.
While specific details about the console are closely guarded, people VGC spoke to indicated that the next-gen console would be able to be used in portable mode, like the Nintendo Switch.
Two sources VGC spoke to suggested that the console could launch with an LCD screen, instead of the more premium OLED, in order to bring costs down, especially considering the increased storage needed for the highest fidelity gamesThe current Switch comes with only 32GB of internal memory, while many current-gen PlayStation and Xbox games exceed 100GB.
Like its predecessor, Nintendo's new console will also accept physical games via cartridge slot, the sources said.
Other details, such as support for the backward compatibility for Switch games (physical and digital) remain unclear. Nintendo has stated that it wants to convert as many Switch users as possible (over 100 million) to its next console, although some third-party publishers have reportedly expressed concern that legacy support for Switch games could negatively impact sales of next-gen titles.
Nintendo did not immediately respond to VGC's request for comment on this story.
THE Dr. Serkan Toto, a Tokyo-based industry consultant, said that a console launch in 2024 would make sense for Nintendo, as it's expected to see double-digit declines in Switch hardware and software sales this year, after erasing seven years on the market.
"I would generally say that looking at Nintendo's finances, it seems clear that it is time to launch a new equipment in 2024", he said. "Hardware sales are already expected to fall 16.5% year-on-year in the current fiscal year, while software sales are expected to decline by 15.9%.
"The only way to prevent these losses from spiraling into the next financial year is a new aircraft, and the second half of 2024 seems to me to be a realistic exit window.
ReedPop's head of B2B games, Christopher Dring, said a 2024 release would fit Nintendo's historical trend of launching hardware "mid-cycle" compared to the PlayStation and Xbox.
"The original Switch came out more than three years after the PS4 and Xbox One, which proved to be a effective move for Nintendo. A release in the second half of 2024 for the Switch 2 would be nearly four years after the PS5 and Xbox Series X and S, so we would see a similar 'mid-cycle' launch for Nintendo," he said.
“I would say that unlike in 2017, Microsoft and Sony’s consoles still feel relatively new right now, partly due to component shortages that slowed deployment in the first couple of years, and software delays that mean we haven’t seen too many titles take full advantage of the PS5 or Xbox Series X. So it remains to be seen whether Nintendo will get the same advantage.
"However, the biggest competitor Nintendo faces is itself. While its core fans are eager for more hardware, its more family-oriented "casual" fans will need some convincing. What the next Mario Kart will bring them more than the current one, for example?
"Nintendo has struggled to evolve players from previous generations, so how it approaches things like digital libraries, Nintendo Account, and even backward compatibility could prove crucial to getting the next console off to a flying start."
If Nintendo releases the Switch successor closer to Christmas, Dring said he would expect a deeper launch lineup than what we saw with the first Switch, which arrived earlier in its launch year.
"In 2017, Nintendo spread out its releases, with a big game arriving almost every month," he said. "By the time the holiday season rolled around, the company had Mario, Zelda, Splatoon and Mario Kart - plus a number of smaller titles like Arms and Xenoblade - to push the console into the crucial Christmas sales window.
"If Nintendo opts for a fourth-quarter release next year, I expect the company to have several games ready to launch."
In May, Nikkei Asia reported that it had been informed by a source close to Nintendo that work on the company's next console appeared to be proceeding smoothly. "Development appears to be progressing satisfactorily," it said. "But the product launch will not take place until next spring at the earliest.
Nintendo aims for 2024 with its next-generation console
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